Monday, July 28, 2008

Energy Change--If they can, we can.

I borrow extensively from an article in the Washington Post Weekly Edition (July 14-20, 2008) by Gal Luft, co-founder of the Set America Free Coalition, a bipartisan alliance of groups promoting U.S. energy independence.

Today we import more than 60% of our oil. At $145 a barrel, we will spend more on oil this year than on defense. And that is saying something. The concept of energy independence was ridiculed by the National Petroleum Council in 2007 as being "unrealistic". It has also been labeled as dangerously delusional by a member of a think tank partially funded by energy interests. A 2006 Council on Foreign Relations task force said it was unachievable in the foreseeable future.Luft urges us to ignore such judgements, reminding us that energy independence does not mean self-sufficiency. Rather he defines it as reducing the role of oil in world politics, turning it form a strategic commodity into merely another thing to sell.

Today, thanks to the original urging of Jimmy Carter, only two per cent of our electricity comes from oil. At least four countries are doing something similar with transportation. First, surprisingly, is Iran. It has lots of crude, but little refining capacity. So their fiery president, Ahmadinejad, not wanting to see his country get caught in a crunch in time of hostility, pushed a campaign to convert gasoline powered vehicles to natural gas. His plan includes a mandate for production of dual-use (gasoline/natural gas), a conversion program for used cars, and a gas station conversion to allow them to offer up gasoline and natural gas. According to the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles, more than 100 conversion centers are in use. A conversion takes only hours, and the vehicle owners are charged only $50.00. Within five years, the country will be immune to possible international sanctions.

Brazil is already energy independent. According to the Sugar Cane Industry Union, 90 percent of new cars sold in Brazil this year will be flexible fuel types, that cost 100 dollars more to make, but can run on any combination of gasoline and ethanol. Many of those cars will be made by General Motors and Ford. Note that gasoline prices in Brazil have nearly doubled elsewhere since 2005. But in Brazil they have been almost frozen. This year more ethanol will be sold in Brazil than gasoline.

China has chosen methanol as a substitute fuel. This is also known as wood alcohol.China's auto industry has already started producing flex-fuel models that run on methanol. Cars that run on pure methanol get stickers allowing free passage on toll roads.

Israel offers another testament to what leadership, ingenuity and audacity can achieve. Last year it launched an electric car venture designed to turn Israel into an oil-free economy. Drivers will soon be able to replace gas-fueled cars with battery-operated ones, which they will be able to plug in to hundreds of thousands of recharging points to be erected throughout the country. They will also be able to swap them out at exchange points, or charge them at home or work.

None of the solutions in the four countries mentioned are even under consideration in the U.S. Policies such as "drill more" and "drive smaller cars" keep us petroeum dependent. They give us a few more years until we become even more petroleum dependent.

Real energy independence can be achieved only through fuel choice and competition. The latter will not happen when we put 16 million new cars on the road each year that run only on gasoline. When in a hole, stop digging. When we want our money to stop going to the Middle East and stay in the Midwest, then, we will see this change, a radical change, the only real change.

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